Good Models and Lost Heterogeneity
Speaker: Mark Bentley, TRACS Training & Heriot-Watt University
January 20, 2021
11:00 am-12:00 pm Mountain Time
The GoToWebinar link will be emailed two days in advance of the webinar.
CSPG member: $30.00 +gst
Non-member: $45.00 +gst
Please note: Registration closed January 19th at 12:00 pm Mountain Time
Reservoir and simulation models are now widespread tools used for forecasting in energy projects, whether for oil and gas production or CO2 disposal or energy storage. Sometime the models are good, sometimes they are bad.
Based on shared experiences with operators over the last 20 years this short talk explores the underlying factors which differentiate ‘good’ models from ‘bad’, and how we can fix them. Key themes are concept-based modelling, fluid-centric design and the handling of scale, in particular the issue of ‘lost heterogeneity’ which leads to a tendency for systematic over-optimistism in our forecasts.
All these things are solvable, often simply by stepping out of the standard modelling workflow to model designs which embrace a multi-scale approach; often these turn out to be more nimble than more traditional workflows.
Figure 1: 'Truth Models'
Figure 2: Modelling for Understanding
Mark has been in the industry since 1986, initially as a production geologist with Shell but mostly training and consulting with TRACS based in the UK. He has spent most of his time working in integrated study teams and running training events; his specialist technical fields of expertise are reservoir modelling and scenario-based approaches to handling subsurface uncertainty and risk. He is co-author of the textbook ‘Reservoir Model Design’ and is Professor of Mature Field Management at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh.
One day, he would like to deliver a training event in Antarctica..